Data Updated July 2026 · 11 min read

Grant success rates by program 2026: your real odds before you apply

Q: What are the odds of getting a federal grant in 2026?

It depends heavily on the program, but competitive federal research and innovation grants are hard: the NIH R01, the flagship research grant, had a success rate of about 13.0% in FY2025, the lowest since NIH's series began in 1970, down from roughly 19% in FY2024 and 22% in FY2023. SBIR Phase I small-business awards run around 17% across agencies. These are per-application odds for a single submission; the full funnel from an initial idea to a funded award is lower still. Formula and need-based programs (many state and local grants, disaster assistance) work differently and are not scored on these competitive rates.

Q: Why did NIH grant success rates drop in 2026?

The NIH R01-equivalent success rate fell to about 13.0% in FY2025, the lowest since NIH's series began in 1970, down from roughly 19% the prior year. The core driver is that application volume has risen while the budget has not kept pace, so more submissions compete for a flat or shrinking pool of awards. Funding disruptions and processing delays around the FY2026 appropriations fights added friction. The practical takeaway is that a strong, well-targeted application matters more than ever, because the margin between funded and unfunded has narrowed.

Q: Are SBIR Phase II success rates higher than Phase I?

Yes, substantially. SBIR Phase I success rates run around 17% across agencies, while about 31% of Phase II proposals were funded in FY2022. The reason is structural: only Phase I winners are eligible to apply for Phase II, so the applicant pool has already cleared a competitive bar and demonstrated feasibility. If you are weighing whether to pursue SBIR, the odds improve dramatically once you clear Phase I, which is why the Phase I proposal is where most of your effort should go.

Before you spend weeks on an application, it is worth knowing the odds. And in 2026 they are sobering at the top: the NIH R01, the flagship federal research grant, funded just 13.0% of applications in FY2025, the lowest rate since NIH's series began in 1970. But "grant odds" is not one number. It swings from about 6% at the toughest agencies to about 31% for SBIR Phase II, and the headline per-application rate hides a compounded funnel that is lower still. This is a cross-program breakdown of what you are actually up against, and where the odds are best. If you are still deciding whether to pursue funding at all, start with grants vs loans.

The one-line versionCompetitive federal grants are hard and got harder in 2026, but the odds vary enormously by program and stage. The hardest step is almost always getting in the door (Phase I / first submission); once you are in, renewal and next-stage odds jump sharply.

Federal grant success rates by program (2026)

These are per-application success rates: of every 100 applications submitted, how many were funded. They cover competitive, peer-reviewed federal programs, the ones that publish rates. Formula grants, block grants, and need-based assistance (much of state, local, and disaster funding) are awarded differently and are not scored this way.

Program	Success rate	What it tells you
NIH R01 (research project)	13.0% (FY2025)	Flagship research grant; lowest since NIH's series began in 1970, down from ~19% (FY2024) and ~22% (FY2023)
NIH overall (all mechanisms)	13.0% (FY2025)	All research project grants, down from 18.5% in FY2024; institutes ranged from 3.7% to 25.9% in FY2025
SBIR Phase I (all agencies)	17.6% (FY2022)	Seed-stage small-business innovation; the common entry point
NSF SBIR Phase I	10-20%	NSF's stated historical range (11% in FY2022)
NIH SBIR Phase I	7.8% (FY2025)	Down from 9.9% in FY2024
DOT SBIR Phase I	6% (FY2022)	12 of 196 Phase I proposals; among the toughest single agencies
SBIR Phase II (all agencies)	31% (FY2022)	Only Phase I winners can apply; by agency from 28% (DoD) to 49% (NSF), and 14.6% at NIH in FY2025

Sources: NIH RePORT success-rate data (report.nih.gov) and SBA's FY2022 SBIR/STTR Annual Report and NSF's SBIR program pages. Rates are approximate, move year to year, and vary by institute, agency, and technology area. Confirm the current figure for your specific program before you rely on it.

The headline number hides a funnel

The single most misleading thing about grant odds is that the published "success rate" is a per-application number, but your real journey has multiple gates. NSF's SBIR program is the clearest example: before you submit a full Phase I proposal you must first submit a Project Pitch and be invited. NSF does not publish how many pitches are invited, so the pitch is a gate with no published odds, sitting in front of a Phase I rate NSF puts at 10-20%. Each gate multiplies the one before it, so the odds from first idea to award are well below any single published rate.

This is not a reason to give up, it is a reason to be strategic. The conditional rate for eligible, well-fitted, well-written proposals is several multiples higher than the raw headline. Most of the funnel loss is applications that were a poor fit or poorly prepared. Which is exactly why a targeted, well-argued proposal moves your personal odds far above the average, covered in how to write a grant proposal.

Read the rate as "average applicant"Published success rates blend strong and weak applications together. A proposal that clearly fits the program's priorities, is technically sound, and answers the review criteria directly competes in a much smaller, stronger pool than the headline number implies.

Getting in the door is the hard part, not staying funded

Notice the gap between Phase I (17.6%) and Phase II (31%) in the table. That near-doubling is structural: only companies that already won a Phase I award are eligible for Phase II, so the applicant pool has already cleared a competitive bar and shown feasibility. The same pattern shows up in research grants, where renewals and continuations generally fare better than brand-new submissions.

The practical implication is where to spend your effort. If you are pursuing SBIR, the Phase I proposal is the highest-leverage document you will write, because clearing it moves you into a pool where 31% of proposals were funded (FY2022), against 17.6% at Phase I. Treat Phase I as the real gate and resource it accordingly.

The hardest step is getting in the door. SBIR Phase II funded 31% of proposals in FY2022, but only Phase I winners get to apply.

Why the odds got harder in 2026

The drop in NIH's R01 rate to 13.0%, its lowest since the series began in 1970, is not a fluke. The core cause is that application volume has risen while budgets have not kept pace, so more proposals compete for a flat or shrinking award pool. On top of that, the FY2026 appropriations fights added friction: a partial government shutdown earlier in the year and a separate Department of Homeland Security funding lapse (which ended April 30, 2026) disrupted grant processing at several agencies and left a backlog, with reviews and disbursements that normally take weeks stretching into months. Those disruptions do not change the long-run success rate, but they lengthened timelines through the middle of 2026.

Timing note (dated)As of mid-2026, the shutdown-driven freezes have ended, but some agencies (notably FEMA and DHS grant programs) were working through a processing backlog after the DHS funding lapse ended on April 30, 2026. If you have an application or award in a DHS/FEMA program, expect longer-than-normal processing and confirm current status with the agency. We date and revisit this note; check the program's own page for the live status.

What actually moves your odds

Success rates are averages; your personal odds are yours to influence. The levers that matter most:

Fit over ambition. Apply to the program whose stated priorities match your project exactly. A mediocre fit at a "prestigious" program loses to a strong fit at the right one.
Answer the review criteria literally. Reviewers score against a rubric. Structure the proposal so each criterion is easy to find and clearly satisfied.
Pick the more accessible door. If two agencies fund similar work, the one with the higher success rate (for example NSF SBIR at 10-20% versus DOT at 6% for Phase I) is the smarter first target.
Resource the first gate. Phase I, or a first-time submission, is where clearing the bar pays off most downstream.
Reapply informed. Many programs let you revise and resubmit; a resubmission that addresses the prior reviews often outperforms a fresh entry.

For the full playbook on turning these odds in your favor, see how to write a grant proposal and, if you are a startup, federal grants for startups.

📬 Get the free grant eligibility screener worksheet (PDF): check your fit before you spend weeks on a low-odds program

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of getting a federal grant in 2026?

It depends on the program, but competitive federal research and innovation grants are hard. The NIH R01, the flagship research grant, funded about 13.0% of applications in FY2025, the lowest since NIH's series began in 1970, down from roughly 19% in FY2024 and 22% in FY2023. SBIR Phase I small-business awards run around 17% across agencies. These are per-application odds; the full funnel from idea to award is lower still. Formula and need-based programs (many state, local, and disaster grants) work differently and are not scored on these competitive rates.

Which grant has the best success rate?

Among competitive federal programs, SBIR Phase II has the best odds, about 31% of proposals funded in FY2022, because only companies that already won a Phase I award can apply, so the pool is pre-screened. Among Phase I entry points, NSF SBIR (historically 10-20%) tends to run higher than the toughest agencies, such as the Department of Transportation (6% of Phase I proposals in FY2022). The hardest step is getting in the door, not staying funded once you are in.

Why did NIH grant success rates drop in 2026?

The NIH R01-equivalent rate fell to about 13.0% in FY2025, the lowest since NIH's series began in 1970, down from roughly 19% the prior year. The core driver is that application volume rose while the budget did not keep pace, so more submissions compete for a flat or shrinking award pool. Funding disruptions around the FY2026 appropriations fights added friction. The takeaway is that a strong, well-targeted application matters more than ever.

Are SBIR Phase II success rates higher than Phase I?

Yes, substantially. Phase I runs around 17% across agencies while about 31% of Phase II proposals were funded in FY2022, because only Phase I winners are eligible to apply for Phase II. If you are weighing SBIR, the odds improve dramatically once you clear Phase I, which is why the Phase I proposal is where most of your effort should go.

Bottom line

Grant odds in 2026 are real but not uniform. The flagship NIH R01 sits at a historic-low 13.0%, SBIR Phase I runs around 17%, and the toughest single agencies dip to 6%, but SBIR Phase II rises to about 31% and the true differentiator is fit and proposal quality, not luck. Read every published rate as the "average applicant" number, then beat it: apply where your project fits exactly, answer the review criteria directly, target the more accessible door, and put your effort into the first gate. Then find the specific programs open now in our federal grants for startups guide and the live opportunity pages under grants.